Remember- "Soylent Green" Was Set In 2022
Is It Time For Another Ukrainian (or Russian) Ammo Dump To Blow Up?
The Gladstone
Economic Newsletter
Volume 17, No. 1
January 17, 2022
Remember- “Soylent Green” Was Set In 2022
and
Is It Time For Another Ukrainian (or Russian) Ammo Depot to Blow Up?
DISCLAIMER: The following is not intended as investment advice, but is rather intended to promote your own analysis of markets and the economic climate. The author is not a registered investment professional. Any action taken as a result of this analysis carries a high degree of risk. This newsletter contains the personal opinion of the author.
Dear readers-
The following chart was created by one of our readers. The chart is about three weeks old, which makes it amplitude and possibility of the market crashing even more likely. The chart shows how the DOW Jones Average has potentially reached the height of a parabolic increase. The convergence of the parabolic closure lines has occurred, and a break in the market is likely. The only thing that could postpone the collapse is even more massive intervention by the Federal Reserve and/or the US Treasury into the equity markets:
In the first two weeks of January, 2022, I have seen what appears to be support of the market by the Fed, but the underlying market forces are starting to really show themselves. The author gives a tip of the hat to our reader from the prison state of Australia for sharing this chart.
Switching topics, I do not personally believe that Russia is going to invade Ukraine in the near future. My reasoning is that Russia would require far more than 100,000 troops to even think about this. We are seeing a massive distraction of the world by the US and other countries in pushing the narrative that Putin is going to invade Ukraine. The only thing possibly putting time pressure on Russia is that Ukraine cut off the fresh water supply canal to Crimea when they lost Crimea to Russia. This situation has gone on for years now. In the United States, we have been bombarded in recent days with hysterical reports that Putin is going to stage a false flag incident to trigger a war with Ukraine. Frankly, the US is the expert in false flag incidents, not Russia. Putin doesn’t have that much to gain by a war with Ukraine now. Putin has a lot to lose by acting.
We saw the recent attempt at civil war in Kazakhstan fizzle out with Russia sending about 3,000 troops as “peace keepers.” The first three days of the riots were a genuine response to unequal wealth distribution and energy price increases. It appears that the riots were then co-opted by “outside forces” in an attempt to either topple the government or punish the Russians by creating this situation in their backyard. World opinion is divided on just which outside parties tried to take advantage of the situation.
My subtitle on this newsletter issue references the fact that since the conflict in the Donbass occurred, Ukraine has been reported to have geared up for an offensive against the Russian rebels twice. Both times, the main ammunition depot for the Ukrainian armed forces mysteriously exploded, thereby not allowing Ukraine to mount an offensive. We have to face the fact that Russian decision making is done at a much more clever and advanced level than that of the US under the Biden Administration. In simple form, “Putin is playing 3D space chess, while the US is playing checkers.” The US and Europe have maneuvered Europe into a potential energy crisis this winter due to not letting the Nord Stream 2 pipeline start operations. Russia reached its limit with the shenanigans Ukraine has pulled in the past with the shipment of natural gas through Ukraine. This has been blatant as the outright theft of transit gas volumes and the non-payment of huge sums for previous gas supply. I understand why Russia is insistent upon letting the Nord Stream 2 pipeline start deliveries.
On another topic, the Omicron variant appears to be following the path predicted by its outbreak in South Africa: cases are starting to peak as large amounts of the population in the US get this variant. I had Omicron between Christmas and New Year’s. I had very mild symptoms for about four days. I have been vaccinated and received a full dose Moderna booster. I did not get a Covid test as lines for testing were huge, and there would be no discernible gain from getting tested. I just isolated, took more vitamin D and zinc. Zerohedge.com published the following chart on the path of cases in South Africa:
Zerohedge.com also published this chart showing that consumer credit has surged to record levels after the flow of Covid relief funds has dried up. This is another indicator that the US economy has entered an even more troubled time in 2022:
Switching gears once more, the following chart partially explains the current labor shortage in the U.S. Due to the pandemic, 1.5 million “extra” workers retired early in the U.S. This was a huge hit to the labor pool, especially as these workers were among the most experienced workers. When you add in younger workers who have decided to take time off from working, you have a major problem.
I came across another interesting chart. You may draw your own conclusions from this:
I will close this newsletter on an upbeat note. The teen pregnancy rate has reached a record low in the United States. High rates of teen pregnancies have been instrumental in poverty creation, as single (and married) mothers have dropped out of school or had other opportunities foreclosed by child birth. It will take some time for the effects of the drop in teen pregnancy to be felt in the U.S. economy, but it will be felt.
The first two closing graphics are the work of Williambanzai7:
We will see if my better half actually reads my newsletters. The author has to admit he still has the Playboy issue pictured in this (circa 1985) graphic. It was a memorable issue.
