Make Argentina Great Again
If Argentina and the Netherlands Had Mail-in Voting, We Wouldn't be in This Situation.
The Gladstone
Economic Newsletter
Volume 18, No. 14
December 3, 2023
Make Argentina Great Again!
If Argentina and the Netherlands Had Mail-in Voting, We Wouldn’t be in This Situation.
DISCLAIMER: The following is not intended as investment advice, but is rather intended to promote your own analysis of markets and the economic climate. The author is not a registered investment professional. Any action taken as a result of this analysis carries a high degree of risk. This newsletter contains the personal opinion of the author.
Dear Readers-
My titles refer to the election of the populist libertarian candidate in Argentina, Javier Millei, to the presidency in Argentina and Gert Wilders’ party (which has been very anti-immigrant in the past) securing the most votes in the Netherlands. The times they are a changin’
Warning to easily offended readers: the following contains strong and graphic opinions not suitable for those of the snowflake persuasion:
Greg Mannarino basically seconded what I wrote in my last newsletter. This is from Dec 2, 2023:
“An ENORMOUS amount of debt purchases is fostering the illusion of liquidity which stock investors view as positive. This mechanism is doing exactly what it is meant to do- INFLATE STOCK PRICES. These massive debt purchases, AND I WILL GIVE YOU JUST ONE GUESS AS TO WHO IS BUYING, along with the US dollar index which is also in a tailspin is also stock market positive.”
The USA Fed (with help from the Us Treasury and the other G7 central banks) has hugely manipulated the US equity and debt markets for the last fifteen years in an attempt to defeat the demographic spending cycles. These spending and economic cycles called for a severe recession to purge the financial system of excesses that had accrued prior to 2008. Instead of letting the system purge itself, the Fed has created a situation wherein we will get a massive economic depression instead. The markets are just waiting for a substantial trigger event in order to purge themselves. One (the Fed) can only manipulate the system for so long until “Mother Nature” extracts its revenge.
As far as I am concerned, almost all of the economic statistics we are receiving in the US today have as much truth as Chinese economic statistics. “Bidenomics” is an unmitigated disaster that has yet to unfold beyond the warm up notes of a tragic opera. David Haggith published the following chart, which is the only economic chart I need to look at to divine where the US is in the actual economic cycle:
For those of you who need help translating the above chart, the economy fell apart the day Biden took office, and has continuously gotten worse. The question is not if we are in a recession, but how much deeper it will get. You may point to the miraculous 5.2% rise in GDP in the third quarter. This was fictitious accounting, and the GDP figures have been hugely inflated by the immense US Government deficit spending, which essentially goes down a rat hole in terms of the real economy.
We are on the brink of a huge banking crisis in the US. The rest of the G7 nations are also poised for this to happen. How do I know this? Wolfstreet.com published the following chart showing the unrealized losses on debt securities at the US banks. This does not count the commercial loan and other losses. This is only the mark-to-market value on US treasuries and other bonds held by banks. The Fed’s one year bailout facility to loan against underwater US treasuries is running at about $650 billion now. Despite this, it is just a matter of time until some major banks hit the rocks like Silicon Valley Bank did in March.
The housing market is due for a large fall in home prices, based upon the following charts. You can’t have 7.3% mortgages and sustain the current prices of homes. Let’s not even going into the continuing, quiet nuclear meltdown in the office and other commercial building values.
Charles Hugh Smith published the following chart depicting consumer prices since the Financial Crisis of 2008. If anything, the chart under depicts the rise in the prices of food and other consumer staples. At McDonalds, the price of the Big Mac value meal went from about $10 at the start of 2020 to about $18 today. This is both A) insane and B) indicative of what has happened to fast food prices across the board.
Bloomberg compiled the following graphic on grocery store prices. In this graphic, it is mostly raw food items. Packaged food items have generally gone up 50% or more since 2020. The packaged food items (canned goods, boxed items, etc.) are made by the giant consumer product producers in the S&P 500, who have a lot of pricing power as generic packaged items are not prevalent. Smart shoppers are starting to select the generic brands when available, despite the massive marketing expenditures of the S&P 500 consumer product companies. As an example, I like flavored cream cheese on my morning bagel. In Colorado, Kraft Foods flavored cream cheese is about $4 (or more) for a 7 or 8 ounce tub. I get the Safeway brand for $2.79 a tub, and it is a better product. However, there is only so much of this type of shopping one can do.
On to political matters. I suffered through many days of news coverage on the passing of Rosalyn Carter. This is preparation for when the planet finally waves “Adios” to Jimmy Carter, whose presidency was an economic and political torture session. Be prepared for many days of lamentations and coverage by the mainstream media when Jimmy Carter passes. We saw the same thing with Henry Kissinger. I considered Mr. Kissinger one of the most evil, most crooked human beings on the planet. The amount of heartache, death, destruction and general criminality that I lay at the footsteps of this man is mind boggling. Henry Kissinger was the point man for the globalists of the International Banking Cartel. In the mining industry, the rumors of the first fortune he made selling his office are staggering. This is not proven, and is my opinion only. However, the following graphic from Salvyangrad probably understates the death toll that can be laid at his feet. I did suggest to a friend that a stake needed to be pounded through Kissinger’s heart before the funeral.
Shifting gears once again, Europe just got walloped by its worst snow storm since 2010. Munich has a blizzard drop 44 centimeters of snow, trapping a variety on private jets on the ground at Munich Airport, which delayed their owners getting to the climate change conference. North America seems to be trending for an above average winter in snowfall.
The human tragedies in Gaza and the Ukraine continue under the Biden administration’s hands.
About a week ago, a Ukrainian television station released on its screen scroll the fact that the Ukrainian Army has lost 1,126,000 soldiers dead or missing since the start of the war. When they say “missing,” it actually means no body parts could be recovered, or the bodies are entombed in collapsed bunkers, or the deaths have not been reported by the Ukrainian unit commanders. The Russians are taking trenches where the Ukrainians soldiers’ bodies have just been left to rot by their comrades. The videos from the battlefields show horrific images. I will not describe them here. The Ukrainian television station who published the figure immediately had the image taken down, but not before screenshots were taken by outsiders. I imagine the managers of the television station were immediately seized by Zelensky’s secret police and found themselves on the front lines two or three days later as cannon fodder. I had previously estimated that at least 700,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died, which is staggering in of itself, but the 1.126 million figure is truly horrific. The Ukrainian nationalists, the willing helpers in the Zelensky regime, and NATO have committed a vast crime against humanity in Ukraine.
I came across the following demographic diagram of Ukraine, from Wikipedia. The age cohort of 15 to 30 year olds is basically missing, presumably from the lack of births during the horrible economic times of the 1990s and afterwards. No sane nation pushes for war with a demographic diagram like this. The Ukrainians are grabbing basically any males off the streets of Ukraine and shipping them to the front. I suspect any male from 14 to the early 70 year olds are susceptible to being abducted and forced to the front lines. The Russians are describing finding dead female soldiers in captured trenches, and there is a memorable video of a pregnant Ukrainian soldier surrendering to the Russians (and no, you progressives possibly reading this, it was not a pregnant male soldier…).
From Wikipedia
For those of you who have followed independent media from the beginning of this war, you know the Ukrainian cemeteries have been overflowing with freshly dug graves decorated with Ukrainian flags for the war dead “lucky enough” to have their bodies transported from the front lines. The situation is far worse than that:
“Via Boris "Colonel Cassad" Rozhin:
The Armed Forces of Ukraine organized a crematorium at the bone burning plant in Konstantinovka (DPR) due to large losses
According to the Military Chronicle, the bodies of killed Ukrainian soldiers are brought to this facility from several directions - the flanks of Artyomovsk, Soledar, as well as from near Avdeevka, 40 km to the south.
In the spring of this year, for the uninterrupted operation of the bone burning plant, industrial refrigerators for storing corpses, as well as powerful multi-fuel generators, were installed in a separate building. To supply the plant, a train with fuel arrives at the Kondratievka railway station, 5 km to the north-west, every 10-14 days.
In order not to cause panic among the local population, the bodies of killed Ukrainian soldiers are transported to the plant in ordinary trucks without the “Cargo 200” markings.
Due to the uninterrupted operation and, presumably, the lack of working industrial filters in the plant's furnaces, there is a strong smell of burnt bodies in the area.
#source (https://t.me/c/1595839251/2930) “
The “200” nomenclature in the above is used in this war as a designation for dead soldiers; wounded soldiers are referred to as “300s.”
Despite the false reports that unauthorized cease fire negations are going on, here is how I think this war will end up (at a minimum for Russia):
From askeptic.substack.com
Here is a one day description of front line losses on the northern sector of the 1000 kilometer long front line:
From Slavyangrad, November 17, 2023
“Western additional assistance continues to burn by leaps and bounds at the forefront of the Northern Military District. Over the past 24 hours, our fighters have destroyed seven American M777 artillery systems, two M109 Paladin self-propelled guns, a Polish Krab self-propelled gun, a British FH70 and several units of Ukrainian artillery and armored vehicles.”
The Russian Ministry of Defense compilation of losses to date by the Ukrainians is as follows:
“In total, 545 airplanes and 256 helicopters, 9,353 unmanned aerial vehicles, 442 air defence missile systems, 13,743 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,187 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 7,215 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 15,844 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.”
This carnage is insane. Think of it – 13,743 tanks and other armored vehicles destroyed. The lunatics in the EU, the US and NATO have denuded their armed forces of not only stockpiled weapons supplies, but active units have probably had their weapons stripped from them. Someday, the insanity of the whole Ukraine war will be told. But not today, and not by the western mainstream press.
The following graphic is very dark humor. I sent this to friends, and only afterward remembered that a friend’s wife is part Palestinian. I hastily apologized (yes, me, “Vigo the Carpathian” apologized) only to be told that the dark humor was actually appreciated.
Now for a graphic on the lighter side: